High Home Prices, High Climate Risk: A 2026 Study of U.S. Cities
Pairing FEMA National Risk Index ratings with median home values across the largest U.S. cities — where the priciest housing meets the highest natural-disaster risk, and where affordability and safety still overlap.
Published August 2026 · Data: U.S. Census Bureau ACS 5-Year + FEMA National Risk Index · 182 cities (population ≥ 150,000)
Key findings
- Nearly 1 in 3 of the largest U.S. cities (30%, 55 of 182) carry a "Very High" FEMA natural-hazard risk rating.
- The most expensive high-risk market is Sunnyvale, CA, where the median home costs $1,680,700 — 5.1× the big-city median — despite Very High risk.
- The cheapest lower-risk major cities cost under $150,000 — you can pay 17× less in a low-risk market like Toledo, OH.
- Safe and affordable cities cluster in the interior Midwest and South — coastal and Western metros dominate the high-risk, high-price list.
Most expensive cities with "Very High" climate risk
Where buyers pay a premium to live in the highest-hazard zones (a driver of home-insurance costs).
| # | City | Median home value | Median rent | FEMA risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sunnyvale, CA | $1,680,700 | $2,990/mo | Very High |
| 2 | San Francisco, CA | $1,348,700 | $2,316/mo | Very High |
| 3 | Fremont, CA | $1,231,500 | $2,824/mo | Very High |
| 4 | San Jose, CA | $1,149,600 | $2,526/mo | Very High |
| 5 | Bellevue, WA | $1,139,500 | $2,422/mo | Very High |
| 6 | Irvine, CA | $1,025,700 | $2,749/mo | Very High |
| 7 | Glendale, CA | $992,000 | $2,002/mo | Very High |
| 8 | Huntington Beach, CA | $976,800 | $2,318/mo | Very High |
| 9 | Oakland, CA | $883,800 | $1,849/mo | Very High |
| 10 | Seattle, WA | $879,900 | $1,945/mo | Very High |
| 11 | Los Angeles, CA | $822,600 | $1,791/mo | Very High |
| 12 | San Diego, CA | $783,300 | $2,080/mo | Very High |
Safe havens: affordable cities with lower climate risk
Below-median home prices paired with a Relatively Low/Moderate FEMA risk rating.
| # | City | Median home value | Median rent | FEMA risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toledo, OH | $98,800 | $854/mo | Relatively Moderate |
| 2 | Akron, OH | $99,700 | $887/mo | Relatively Moderate |
| 3 | Jackson, MS | $104,900 | $980/mo | Relatively Moderate |
| 4 | Rochester, NY | $111,400 | $995/mo | Relatively Moderate |
| 5 | Kansas City, KS | $133,800 | $1,044/mo | Relatively Moderate |
| 6 | Augusta-Richmond County consolidated government (balance), GA | $141,900 | $1,023/mo | Relatively Moderate |
| 7 | Montgomery, AL | $141,900 | $1,026/mo | Relatively Moderate |
| 8 | Springfield, MO | $146,400 | $878/mo | Relatively Moderate |
| 9 | Fort Wayne, IN | $152,500 | $904/mo | Relatively Moderate |
| 10 | Macon-Bibb County, GA | $155,200 | $967/mo | Relatively Low |
| 11 | Fayetteville, NC | $158,500 | $1,117/mo | Relatively Moderate |
| 12 | Laredo, TX | $164,400 | $968/mo | Relatively Moderate |
Methodology
Home values and rents come from the U.S. Census Bureau's American Community Survey (ACS) 5-Year estimates. Risk ratings come from FEMA's National Risk Index, a county-level composite of 18 natural hazards. Analysis covers incorporated places with a population of at least 150,000. A county-level rating is an area indicator, not a property-level insurance quote. Per-city data and sources are on each city page.
Cite this study
Free to reuse with attribution:
Source: <a href="https://www.relocatefacts.com/study/climate-risk-home-prices-2026">RelocateData — High Home Prices, High Climate Risk (2026)</a>
More: Most Affordable U.S. Cities (2026) · 336 U.S. city profiles